Blog

Avoiding the Dunning-Kruger Trap

Written by The ecoPortal team | Aug 27, 2025 12:20:48 AM

Unlike tangible threats such as budget overruns or production delays, psychosocial risks are often invisible to those who aren't trained to see them. This presents a unique and dangerous problem for leaders: how to identify and manage a risk you don’t always know exists? 

This is where the Dunning-Kruger effect offers a powerful and insightful lesson.

The Dunning-Kruger effect sits within the realm of cognitive bias, and it describes a powerful disconnect between a person’s actual ability and their self-perception. A key finding of this bias is the phenomenon where those with limited knowledge in a given area tend to dramatically overestimate their own competence.

The irony is that the very skills needed to recognise one’s own incompetence are often the ones that are lacking. While the validity of the effect itself has been debated and nuanced in some academic circles, the core lesson remains undeniably powerful: our lack of expertise can blind us to our own ignorance.

In the context of leadership, a manager who lacks a baseline understanding of what psychosocial risks truly are may be convinced they have a handle on their team's well-being, even as signs of distress mount. High turnover, constant burnout, and low morale are not seen as indicators of a systemic issue, but rather as signs of "bad employees" or a lack of personal resilience. 

This isn't born of malice, but of a profound lack of awareness of what effective psychosocial risk management truly entails. 

In effect, they are blaming the people for problems created by the system.

So, how do we combat this? The answer lies in investing in training and education for ourselves and our leaders. By equipping our organisations with a deep understanding of psychosocial risks, we can move from a state of unconscious incompetence to a place of informed action. Knowledge, supported by robust data, allows leaders to see the problem for what it is: a systemic issue, not a personal failing.

Psychological safety training ensures our leaders not only know what they don’t know, but also have the insights needed to identify and mitigate these risks. This approach not only builds better managers but also helps to create a culture where psychosocial risks are proactively addressed, rather than being dismissed with a quick-fix solution. 

After all, a manager who understands the true scope of the problem, backed by clear data, is far more likely to be an effective one.

This short and snappy read is part of our Safety Snacks© series, made for busy safety pros who like their insights one bite at a time.